Winter Forecast: Which States Are Bracing for an Early Snowfall?

As the autumn leaves begin to change, many of us start wondering when winter will make its first appearance. This year, experts are watching key global weather patterns that suggest several states could see significant snowfall earlier than usual. If you’re curious about whether to get your snow shovel ready soon, we’ve broken down the forecast.

Understanding the Forces Behind an Early Winter

Before we name the specific states, it’s important to understand why meteorologists are predicting an early start to winter in some areas. The primary driver this year is a phenomenon known as La Niña.

La Niña is a climate pattern characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. While it happens thousands of miles away, this cooling effect has a major impact on the jet stream, which is a fast-moving river of air high in the atmosphere. During a La Niña winter, the jet stream tends to shift northward, bringing colder air and more frequent storms to the northern tier of the United States.

Experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center monitor these patterns closely. Their long-range forecasts, based on La Niña’s influence, are pointing to specific regions that are most likely to experience a colder and snowier start to the season.

States on the Early Snow Watch List

Based on typical La Niña patterns and current long-range forecasts, several regions should prepare for the possibility of snow arriving sooner than their historical average. This doesn’t guarantee a blizzard in October, but it does increase the probability of early-season snow events and colder temperatures.

The Pacific Northwest

This region is often one of the first to feel the effects of a strong La Niña pattern. The altered jet stream tends to steer moisture-rich storms directly into this area, where they collide with colder Canadian air.

Washington: Both the Cascade Mountains and lower elevation areas like Spokane could see significant early-season snowfall. Seattle, which typically sees little snow, has a higher chance of a measurable event before the new year.
Oregon: Similar to Washington, the mountain passes in Oregon are prime candidates for heavy, early snow. Areas in the eastern part of the state are also likely to experience a colder, snowier start to winter.
Idaho: Known for its rugged terrain, Idaho is forecast to have an active winter. From the Panhandle down to the Boise area, residents should be prepared for winter conditions to set in earlier than average.

The Northern Rockies

Just east of the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies are perfectly positioned to receive abundant snowfall during a La Nina winter. The cold air is readily available, and the storm track often favors this region.

Montana: Big Sky Country could live up to its name with big snow totals. Cities like Bozeman and Missoula, along with the state’s famous mountain ranges, are expected to see a robust start to the snow season.
Wyoming: Home to Yellowstone and the Grand Tetons, Wyoming is no stranger to snow. This year, the season could kick off with more intensity and an earlier arrival, especially in the western and northern parts of the state.
Colorado: While the entire state sees snow, the northern mountains of Colorado are particularly favored in a La Niña pattern. Ski resorts in areas like Steamboat Springs could see an excellent base of snow build up sooner than expected.

The Upper Midwest and Great Lakes

This region gets a double impact. Not only does the La Niña pattern bring colder air south from the Arctic, but it also enhances “lake-effect” snow. As cold air passes over the relatively warmer waters of the Great Lakes, it picks up moisture and dumps it as heavy snow on the downwind shores.

Minnesota: Known for its harsh winters, Minnesota could see its famously cold and snowy season begin ahead of schedule. The “North Shore” along Lake Superior is particularly susceptible.
Wisconsin: From Green Bay to Milwaukee, Wisconsin is likely to experience colder temperatures and above-average snowfall, with the potential for significant lake-effect snow events.
Michigan: The Upper Peninsula and the western coast of the Lower Peninsula are famous lake-effect snow belts. A La Niña pattern often energizes this process, leading to substantial early-season accumulations.

How to Prepare for an Early Winter

Seeing your state on this list means it’s a good idea to get your winter preparations done sooner rather than later. An early storm can catch people off guard, so taking a few proactive steps can make a big difference.

Vehicle Check: Make sure your car is ready. Check your tire tread and pressure, top off your antifreeze and windshield washer fluid, and test your battery. It’s also wise to assemble a winter emergency kit for your car, including a blanket, flashlight, ice scraper, and jumper cables.
Home Maintenance: Have your furnace or heating system inspected by a professional. Check windows and doors for drafts and seal them with weatherstripping. Clean your gutters to prevent ice dams from forming.
Stock Up on Supplies: Make sure you have a good snow shovel, ice melt, or sand. It’s also a good idea to have a few days’ worth of non-perishable food, water, and any necessary medications on hand in case a storm makes travel difficult.

By understanding the forecast and preparing ahead of time, you can ensure you’re ready to handle whatever an early winter throws your way.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference between La Niña and El Niño? They are opposite phases of the same climate pattern. La Niña involves a cooling of the Pacific Ocean, which typically brings colder, snowier weather to the northern U.S. El Niño involves a warming of the Pacific, which often results in a warmer, drier winter for the northern states and wetter conditions in the South.

How accurate are these long-range winter forecasts? Long-range forecasts are not a guarantee of specific weather on a specific day. Instead, they predict broad trends and probabilities over a season. They are very useful for understanding the general pattern to expect, such as whether the season will likely be colder or warmer and wetter or drier than average.

Does this mean the entire country will have a bad winter? No. A La Niña pattern often leads to warmer and drier-than-average conditions across the southern third of the United States. While the North is bracing for snow, states from Southern California to the Southeast coast may experience a milder winter.